Earthquake long-term Predictions Model
on February 20, 2012 at 2:12 amA pair of Stony Brook University geoscientists has authored a paper on a numerical model they invented that will have implications on the long-term predictions of earthquakes.
Professor William E. Holt and postdoctoral associate Attreyee Ghosh developed a numerical way to explain the stresses that act on the Earth’s tectonic plates, both at the plate boundaries – which is where most earthquakes happen – and in the plate interiors – a much less understood cause of earthquakes.
Their paper, “Plate Motions and Stresses from Global Dynamic Models,” was published Feb. 17 in the journal Science.Holt stressed that while their model cannot predict earthquakes in a short-term capacity, “it can help at better understanding or forecasting earthquakes over longer time spans. Nobody can yet predict, but ultimately given a better understanding of the forces within the system, one can develop better forecast models.”
Their model is based on data from Global Positioning System measurements, a network of global seismometers, and other and other measurements based on plate boundary zones in the Earth’s crust.
They compared these measurements with output from their own model, which Holt said allowed them to “test the completeness of the model.”
